As SLPP flag bearer contest heats up, Dr. Kadi Sesay takes a commanding lead

As part of my research trip which took me to all districts of Sierra Leone, I decided to use my training and skills in probability theory and epidemiology to do a parallel study of the positioning of the presidential hopefuls for the Sierra Leone People’s Party (SLPP).  (Photo: Dr Kadi Sesay in Bonthe)

For a number of reasons, some of us Sierra Leoneans who are resident in the Diaspora, local political analysts and some members of the international community in Sierra Leone with whom I interacted all justifiably believe that the possibility of a change of leadership for Sierra Leone in 2012 is higher if the SLPP selects the RIGHT CANDIDATE AS PRESIDENTIAL FLAGBEARER. 

SLPP members and loyalists in all corners of the country share the same view and there is real confidence among those loyalists that with the right selection, the SLPP will regain political ascendancy in Sierra Leone come 2012.

I engaged in frank and discrete discussions with an unbiased random sample of SLPP delegates in each district in Sierra Leone. These are the party members who will be voting for the potential flag bearer at the March 2011 convention in Sierra Leone. These designated delegates presented informed views on the levels and nature of support each candidate enjoys in each district.

Click on graphic above to enlarge

To reduce sampling errors, I undertook a double blind run of two or more delegates in each district and reached poll averages for that sample size. Based on the broad sample of delegates interviewed and because of the averages of the double run, the margin of error for this data is around a conservative +/-5%.  This therefore reflects the nature and quality of support on the ground for the leading FIVE CONTENDERS FOR THE SLPP PRESIDENTIAL FLAG BEARERSHIP.

This study has not included delegates or potential delegates in the Diaspora as it is still not known how many delegates will come from North America, UK and Ireland, and Europe based on the 1 delegate per 50 member resolution passed at the Bo convention in March 2010. Other unknown support groups and other persons were also not contacted.

Interpretation of Findings

I present the raw statistical data here and highlight a few simple indicators. The clear front runners as at June 15, 2010 are Dr. Kadi Sesay followed very closely by Ret. Brigadier Maada Bio and then Usman Boye Kamara and Andrew Keili in a tight race for third.

Brigadier Maada Bio commands a healthy lead in the southern and eastern traditional strongholds of the SLPP.

Dr. Kadi Sesay commands countrywide support followed closely by Ret. Brigadier Maada Bio. Dr. Sesay also enjoys huge support among women delegates countrywide. She also holds a commanding lead in the northern districts of the country.

Usman Boye Kamara holds a firm and respectable lead in the western area and solid showings in Koinadugu, Kambia, Pujehun, and Kono districts.

But Dr. Kadi Sesay and Ret. Brig. Maada Bio are in close contention for the Western area with Ret. Brig. Bio splitting the younger voters with Usman Boye Kamara and Dr. Kadi Sesay commanding the women voters.

Andrew Keili has a solid chunk of delegates in Kailahun, Kenema, and Bo Districts as well as a decent showing with party intelligentsia in the western area. There are complaints that he does not quite strike it with youth voters as he is seen as too prim and proper unlike Usman Boye Kamara and Ret. Brig. Maada Bio. 

Bonthe district is in tight contention among Dr. Kadi Sesay, Ret. Brig. Maada Bio, and Andrew Keili. This district showed an intriguing reading for me with the women, male, and youthful delegates clearly split among the three candidates.

It is unclear from the responses from this discrete sample size whether constituencies and supporters are sealed and locked. Some respondents did indicate that they may consider alternative candidates depending on how events play out in the next couple of months. Some respondents said that some candidates had not approached them and so they could not support them at the moment. However, they said they would consider them very strongly when and if they approached them. This was particularly the case with Andrew Keili in the Bombali and Kambia districts and this was the case also for Dr. Kadi Sesay in Pujehun District. Usman Boye Kamara may need to do some more work in Kenema in spite of reports that he has a high powered contact in that district. Some respondents stated that they could not support any of the candidates at the moment because they want to sit and see what happens over the next couple of months.

I will be returning to Sierra Leone in three months and I intend to conduct another discrete sampling of delegates’ views on the leading contenders for the flagbearership of the Sierra Leone People’s Party.

Alpha Kinei Massaquoi,Associate Fellow, Center for Statistics, Ghent University, Krijgslaan 281-S9, 9000 Gent, Belgium.

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